Mārupe v Smiltene: the model read
Mārupe meet Smiltene in the 1. Liga regular season - 12. The model makes Mārupe the most likely outcome at 46%, with the full read 46% MĀR, 27% draw, 27% SMI.
The baseline ratings are close, 1512 to 1400, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form leans Mārupe, 48% against 25%. Attacking output favors Mārupe on expected goals, 1.5 to 1.4 per match.
Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 70%, over 2.5 goals around 80%. Draw no bet leans Mārupe at 64%; double chance reads Mārupe or draw 73%, Smiltene or draw 54%.
Mārupe arrive steady: 2W-0D-3L from their last five (6/15 pts), 4 scored and 9 conceded. Recent results: W 2-1 @ Rēzekne FA, L 0-4 v Metta / LU, L 0-1 v Grobiņa, W 2-1 v Smiltene.
Smiltene are patchy: 1W-0D-4L from their last five (3/15 pts), 8 scored and 15 conceded. Recent results: L 3-5 v Rīgas FS II, W 1-0 v Rēzekne FA, L 1-2 @ Mārupe, L 2-4 v Skanste.
Market prices for this fixture have not settled yet. The edge reads as soon as real odds arrive.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 54 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output