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UEFA Nations League · 6 · World

Germany v Netherlands

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Match analysisPre-match brief

Germany v Netherlands: the model read

Germany meet Netherlands in the UEFA Nations League 6.

The baseline ratings are close, 1673 to 1661, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form separates little, 73% against 75%. Attacking output favors Germany on expected goals, 2.6 to 2.6 per match.

Germany arrive in good touch: 3W-1D-1L from their last five (10/15 pts), 13 scored and 6 conceded. Recent results: D 1-1 v Paraguay, L 1-2 @ Ecuador, W 2-1 v Ivory Coast, W 7-1 v Curaçao.

Netherlands are in good touch: 3W-2D-0L from their last five (11/15 pts, 5 unbeaten), 13 scored and 6 conceded. Recent results: D 1-1 v Morocco, W 3-1 @ Tunisia, W 5-1 v Sweden, D 2-2 v Japan.

Market prices for this fixture have not settled yet. The edge reads as soon as real odds arrive.

MeisterIQ rates the signal 51 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.

Written from the MeisterIQ model output

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See plans

Germany

WWWLD13-3-4

Scored 2.65 · Conceded 1.10 · Clean sheets 30% · BTTS 60%

  • DHParaguay1-1
  • LAEcuador1-2
  • WHIvory Coast2-1
  • WHCuraçao7-1
  • WAUSA2-1

Netherlands

WDWWD11-8-1

Scored 2.65 · Conceded 0.95 · Clean sheets 30% · BTTS 65%

  • DHMorocco1-1
  • WATunisia3-1
  • WHSweden5-1
  • DHJapan2-2
  • WHUzbekistan2-1

Managers

J. Nagelsmann

Germany · 38

In charge since 2023 · 5 teams managed

  • Bayern Munich2021–2023
  • RB Leipzig2019–2021
  • Hoffenheim2016–2019
  • Hoffenheim U192013–2016

R. Koeman

Netherlands · 62

In charge since 2023 · 11 teams managed

  • Barcelona2020–2021
  • Netherlands2018–2020
  • Everton2016–2017
  • Southampton2014–2016

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MeisterIQ, the four model inputs, model vs market and the edge

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Real data only: recent results, head-to-head and market odds. No model output is shown for teams without Lemeister priors.