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UEFA Nations League · 5 · World

Albania v Finland

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Albania v Finland: the model read

Albania meet Finland in the UEFA Nations League 5.

The baseline ratings are close, 1500 to 1400, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form leans Albania, 48% against 30%. Attacking output favors Finland on expected goals, 0.9 to 0.8 per match.

Albania arrive out of sorts: 0W-0D-5L from their last five (0/15 pts, 5 straight defeats), 1 scored and 7 conceded. Recent results: L 0-1 v Luxembourg, L 0-1 v Israel, L 0-1 @ Ukraine, L 1-2 @ Poland.

Finland are steady: 2W-1D-2L from their last five (7/15 pts, 2 straight defeats), 8 scored and 7 conceded. Recent results: L 1-2 @ Hungary, L 0-4 @ Germany, D 1-1 @ Cape Verde Islands, W 2-0 @ New Zealand.

Market prices for this fixture have not settled yet. The edge reads as soon as real odds arrive.

MeisterIQ rates the signal 52 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.

Written from the MeisterIQ model output

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Albania

LLLLL8-3-9

Scored 0.85 · Conceded 0.90 · Clean sheets 40% · BTTS 25%

  • LHLuxembourg0-1
  • LHIsrael0-1
  • LAUkraine0-1
  • LAPoland1-2
  • LHEngland0-2

Finland

WWDLL5-2-13

Scored 0.90 · Conceded 1.75 · Clean sheets 15% · BTTS 40%

  • LAHungary1-2
  • LAGermany0-4
  • DACape Verde Islands1-1
  • WANew Zealand2-0
  • WHAndorra4-0

Managers

Sylvinho

Head coach

In charge since 2023 · 3 teams managed

  • Corinthians2021–2022
  • Lyon2019–2019

J. Friis

Denmark · 49

In charge since 2025 · 4 teams managed

  • Viborg2022–2023
  • Denmark U192021–2022
  • AaB2018–2020

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MeisterIQ, the four model inputs, model vs market and the edge

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Real data only: recent results, head-to-head and market odds. No model output is shown for teams without Lemeister priors.