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Netherlands v Serbia

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Match analysisPre-match brief

Netherlands v Serbia: the model read

Netherlands meet Serbia in the UEFA Nations League 4.

Netherlands rate clearly stronger on the baseline, 1661 to 1492. Recent form leans Netherlands, 75% against 47%. Attacking output favors Netherlands on expected goals, 2.6 to 0.9 per match.

Netherlands arrive in good touch: 3W-2D-0L from their last five (11/15 pts, 5 unbeaten), 13 scored and 6 conceded. Recent results: D 1-1 v Morocco, W 3-1 @ Tunisia, W 5-1 v Sweden, D 2-2 v Japan.

Serbia are steady: 2W-0D-3L from their last five (6/15 pts, 2 straight defeats), 5 scored and 13 conceded. Recent results: L 1-5 @ Mexico, L 0-3 @ Cape Verde Islands, W 2-1 v Saudi Arabia, L 0-3 @ Spain.

Market prices for this fixture have not settled yet. The edge reads as soon as real odds arrive.

MeisterIQ rates the signal 57 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.

Written from the MeisterIQ model output

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Netherlands

WDWWD11-8-1

Scored 2.65 · Conceded 0.95 · Clean sheets 30% · BTTS 65%

  • DHMorocco1-1
  • WATunisia3-1
  • WHSweden5-1
  • DHJapan2-2
  • WHUzbekistan2-1

Serbia

WLWLL7-4-8

Scored 0.95 · Conceded 1.53 · Clean sheets 31.6% · BTTS 31.6%

  • LAMexico1-5
  • LACape Verde Islands0-3
  • WHSaudi Arabia2-1
  • LASpain0-3
  • WHLatvia2-1

Managers

R. Koeman

Netherlands · 62

In charge since 2023 · 11 teams managed

  • Barcelona2020–2021
  • Netherlands2018–2020
  • Everton2016–2017
  • Southampton2014–2016

D. Stojković

Serbia · 60

In charge since 2021 · 4 teams managed

  • Guangzhou City2015–2020
  • Al Shamal2015–2015
  • Nagoya Grampus2012–2013
  • Nagoya Grampus2008–2012

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MeisterIQ, the four model inputs, model vs market and the edge

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Real data only: recent results, head-to-head and market odds. No model output is shown for teams without Lemeister priors.