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Spain v Croatia

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Match analysisPre-match brief

Spain v Croatia: the model read

Spain meet Croatia in the UEFA Nations League 2.

Spain rate clearly stronger on the baseline, 1758 to 1627. Recent form leans Spain, 87% against 65%. Attacking output favors Spain on expected goals, 2.3 to 2.0 per match.

Spain arrive surging: 5W-0D-0L from their last five (15/15 pts, 5 straight wins), 9 scored and 1 conceded. Recent results: W 1-0 v Argentina, W 2-0 @ France, W 2-1 v Belgium, W 1-0 @ Portugal.

Croatia are in good touch: 3W-0D-2L from their last five (9/15 pts), 8 scored and 8 conceded. Recent results: L 1-2 @ Portugal, W 2-1 v Ghana, W 1-0 @ Panama, L 2-4 @ England.

Spain hold the recent head-to-head, 4 wins to 2 with 1 drawn across the last 7 meetings. Most recently they met in 2024: Spain 3-0 Croatia.

Market prices for this fixture have not settled yet. The edge reads as soon as real odds arrive.

MeisterIQ rates the signal 55 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.

Written from the MeisterIQ model output

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Spain

WWWWW14-5-0

Scored 2.32 · Conceded 0.37 · Clean sheets 73.7% · BTTS 26.3%

  • WHArgentina1-0
  • WAFrance2-0
  • WHBelgium2-1
  • WAPortugal1-0
  • WHAustria3-0

Croatia

WLWWL12-2-6

Scored 2.00 · Conceded 1.10 · Clean sheets 35% · BTTS 50%

  • LAPortugal1-2
  • WHGhana2-1
  • WAPanama1-0
  • LAEngland2-4
  • WHSlovenia2-1

Head-to-head

7 meetings

SpainrecordCroatia
4
2
1 draw

Goals

18-8

for each

Avg goals

3.7

per game

BTTS

43%

both scored

Over 2.5

71%

3+ goals

Spain

Recent
WDWLWL
Wins 4Goals 18-8

Biggest win 6-0

Croatia

Recent
LDLWLW
Wins 2Goals 8-18

Biggest win 3-2

  • Spain3-0Croatia
  • Croatia0-0Spain
  • Croatia3-5Spain
  • Croatia3-2Spain
  • Spain6-0Croatia
  • Croatia2-1Spain
  • Croatia0-1Spain

Managers

S. Ndaba

South Africa

In charge since 2024

Z. Dalić

Croatia · 59

In charge since 2017 · 4 teams managed

  • Al Ain2014–2017
  • Al Hilal2013–2013
  • Al Faisaly2010–2012

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MeisterIQ, the four model inputs, model vs market and the edge

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Real data only: recent results, head-to-head and market odds. No model output is shown for teams without Lemeister priors.