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England v Spain

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Match analysisPre-match brief

England v Spain: the model read

England meet Spain in the UEFA Nations League 1.

The baseline ratings are close, 1730 to 1758, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form separates little, 80% against 87%. Attacking output favors Spain on expected goals, 2.3 to 2.3 per match.

England arrive in good touch: 4W-0D-1L from their last five (12/15 pts), 14 scored and 10 conceded. Recent results: W 6-4 @ France, L 1-2 v Argentina, W 2-1 @ Norway, W 3-2 @ Mexico.

Spain are surging: 5W-0D-0L from their last five (15/15 pts, 5 straight wins), 9 scored and 1 conceded. Recent results: W 1-0 v Argentina, W 2-0 @ France, W 2-1 v Belgium, W 1-0 @ Portugal.

Spain hold the recent head-to-head, 2 wins to 1 across the last 3 meetings. Most recently they met in 2024: Spain 2-1 England.

Market prices for this fixture have not settled yet. The edge reads as soon as real odds arrive.

MeisterIQ rates the signal 53 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.

Written from the MeisterIQ model output

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England

WWWLW15-2-3

Scored 2.30 · Conceded 0.85 · Clean sheets 55% · BTTS 40%

  • WAFrance6-4
  • LHArgentina1-2
  • WANorway2-1
  • WAMexico3-2
  • WHCongo DR2-1

Spain

WWWWW14-5-0

Scored 2.32 · Conceded 0.37 · Clean sheets 73.7% · BTTS 26.3%

  • WHArgentina1-0
  • WAFrance2-0
  • WHBelgium2-1
  • WAPortugal1-0
  • WHAustria3-0

Head-to-head

3 meetings

EnglandrecordSpain
1
2
0 draws

Goals

5-6

for each

Avg goals

3.7

per game

BTTS

100%

both scored

Over 2.5

100%

3+ goals

England

Recent
LWL
Wins 1Goals 5-6

Biggest win 3-2

Spain

Recent
WLW
Wins 2Goals 6-5

Biggest win 2-1

  • Spain2-1England
  • Spain2-3England
  • England1-2Spain

Managers

T. Tuchel

Germany · 52

In charge since 2025 · 6 teams managed

  • Bayern Munich2023–2024
  • Chelsea2021–2022
  • PSG2018–2020
  • Borussia Dortmund2015–2017

S. Ndaba

South Africa

In charge since 2024

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MeisterIQ, the four model inputs, model vs market and the edge

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Real data only: recent results, head-to-head and market odds. No model output is shown for teams without Lemeister priors.