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Italy v Belgium

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Match analysisPre-match brief

Italy v Belgium: the model read

Italy meet Belgium in the UEFA Nations League 1.

The baseline ratings are close, 1673 to 1673, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form separates little, 73% against 75%. Attacking output favors Belgium on expected goals, 3.0 to 2.1 per match.

Italy arrive in good touch: 3W-1D-1L from their last five (10/15 pts, 2 straight wins), 6 scored and 5 conceded. Recent results: W 1-0 @ Greece, W 1-0 @ Luxembourg, D 1-1 @ Bosnia & Herzegovina, W 2-0 v Northern Ireland.

Belgium are in good touch: 3W-1D-1L from their last five (10/15 pts), 13 scored and 6 conceded. Recent results: L 1-2 @ Spain, W 4-1 @ USA, W 3-2 v Senegal, W 5-1 @ New Zealand.

Italy hold the recent head-to-head, 4 wins to 0 with 1 drawn across the last 5 meetings. Most recently they met in 2024: Belgium 0-1 Italy.

Market prices for this fixture have not settled yet. The edge reads as soon as real odds arrive.

MeisterIQ rates the signal 53 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.

Written from the MeisterIQ model output

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Italy

LWDWW13-3-4

Scored 2.15 · Conceded 1.30 · Clean sheets 40% · BTTS 55%

  • WAGreece1-0
  • WALuxembourg1-0
  • DABosnia & Herzegovina1-1
  • WHNorthern Ireland2-0
  • LHNorway1-4

Belgium

DWWWL12-6-2

Scored 3.00 · Conceded 1.00 · Clean sheets 40% · BTTS 60%

  • LASpain1-2
  • WAUSA4-1
  • WHSenegal3-2
  • WANew Zealand5-1
  • DHIran0-0

Head-to-head

5 meetings

ItalyrecordBelgium
4
0
1 draw

Goals

9-4

for each

Avg goals

2.6

per game

BTTS

60%

both scored

Over 2.5

60%

3+ goals

Italy

Recent
WDWWW
Wins 4Goals 9-4

Biggest win 2-0

Belgium

Recent
LDLLL
Wins 0Goals 4-9
  • Belgium0-1Italy
  • Italy2-2Belgium
  • Italy2-1Belgium
  • Belgium1-2Italy
  • Belgium0-2Italy

Managers

L. Spalletti

Italy · 66

In charge since 2023 · 10 teams managed

  • Napoli2021–2023
  • Inter Milan2017–2019
  • Roma2016–2017
  • Zenit2009–2014

R. Garcia

France · 61

In charge since 2025 · 10 teams managed

  • Napoli2023–2023
  • Al Nassr2022–2023
  • Lyon2019–2021
  • Marseille2016–2019

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Real data only: recent results, head-to-head and market odds. No model output is shown for teams without Lemeister priors.