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Netherlands v Germany

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Match analysisPre-match brief

Netherlands v Germany: the model read

Netherlands meet Germany in the UEFA Nations League 1.

The baseline ratings are close, 1661 to 1673, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form separates little, 75% against 73%. Attacking output favors Netherlands on expected goals, 2.6 to 2.6 per match.

Netherlands arrive in good touch: 3W-2D-0L from their last five (11/15 pts, 5 unbeaten), 13 scored and 6 conceded. Recent results: D 1-1 v Morocco, W 3-1 @ Tunisia, W 5-1 v Sweden, D 2-2 v Japan.

Germany are in good touch: 3W-1D-1L from their last five (10/15 pts), 13 scored and 6 conceded. Recent results: D 1-1 v Paraguay, L 1-2 @ Ecuador, W 2-1 v Ivory Coast, W 7-1 v Curaçao.

Germany hold the recent head-to-head, 4 wins to 2 with 3 drawn across the last 9 meetings. Most recently they met in 2024: Germany 1-0 Netherlands.

Market prices for this fixture have not settled yet. The edge reads as soon as real odds arrive.

MeisterIQ rates the signal 51 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.

Written from the MeisterIQ model output

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Netherlands

WDWWD11-8-1

Scored 2.65 · Conceded 0.95 · Clean sheets 30% · BTTS 65%

  • DHMorocco1-1
  • WATunisia3-1
  • WHSweden5-1
  • DHJapan2-2
  • WHUzbekistan2-1

Germany

WWWLD13-3-4

Scored 2.65 · Conceded 1.10 · Clean sheets 30% · BTTS 60%

  • DHParaguay1-1
  • LAEcuador1-2
  • WHIvory Coast2-1
  • WHCuraçao7-1
  • WAUSA2-1

Head-to-head

9 meetings

NetherlandsrecordGermany
2
4
3 draws

Goals

16-15

for each

Avg goals

3.4

per game

BTTS

78%

both scored

Over 2.5

78%

3+ goals

Netherlands

Recent
LDLDWL
Wins 2Goals 16-15

Biggest win 3-0

Germany

Recent
WDWDLW
Wins 4Goals 15-16

Biggest win 1-0

  • Germany1-0Netherlands
  • Netherlands2-2Germany
  • Germany2-1Netherlands
  • Netherlands1-1Germany
  • Germany2-4Netherlands
  • Netherlands2-3Germany
  • Germany2-2Netherlands
  • Netherlands3-0Germany
  • Netherlands1-2Germany

Managers

R. Koeman

Netherlands · 62

In charge since 2023 · 11 teams managed

  • Barcelona2020–2021
  • Netherlands2018–2020
  • Everton2016–2017
  • Southampton2014–2016

J. Nagelsmann

Germany · 38

In charge since 2023 · 5 teams managed

  • Bayern Munich2021–2023
  • RB Leipzig2019–2021
  • Hoffenheim2016–2019
  • Hoffenheim U192013–2016

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Real data only: recent results, head-to-head and market odds. No model output is shown for teams without Lemeister priors.