Where the market is wrong on Floresta v Maringá
Floresta meet Maringá in the Serie C regular season - 15. The model makes Maringá the most likely outcome at 44%, with the full read 27% FLO, 30% draw, 44% MAR.
Maringá rate clearly stronger on the baseline, 1601 to 1466. Recent form leans Maringá, 63% against 45%. Attacking output favors Maringá on expected goals, 2.1 to 0.8 per match.
Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 49%, over 2.5 goals around 53%. Draw no bet leans Maringá at 62%; double chance reads Floresta or draw 56%, Maringá or draw 73%.
Floresta arrive patchy: 1W-2D-2L from their last five (5/15 pts, 3 unbeaten), 4 scored and 5 conceded. Recent results: D 0-0 @ Caxias, D 0-0 @ Guarani Campinas, W 2-1 v Barra, L 1-2 @ Brusque.
Maringá are in good touch: 2W-3D-0L from their last five (9/15 pts, 2 straight wins), 8 scored and 3 conceded. Recent results: W 1-0 @ Anápolis, W 4-0 v Volta Redonda, D 2-2 @ Inter De Limeira, D 1-1 @ Caxias.
Their last 1 meetings are tight — 1 drawn. Most recently they met in 2025: Maringá 1-1 Floresta.
The market prices FLO at 30% implied. Our number sits apart on Maringá: a 4.4-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 64 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
