Brusque v Ituano: the model read
Brusque meet Ituano in the Serie C regular season - 15. The model makes Brusque the most likely outcome at 37%, with the full read 37% BRU, 33% draw, 30% ITU.
The baseline ratings are close, 1558 to 1489, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form leans Brusque, 57% against 48%. Attacking output favors Brusque on expected goals, 1.1 to 1.1 per match.
Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 35%, over 2.5 goals around 28%. Draw no bet leans Brusque at 55%; double chance reads Brusque or draw 70%, Ituano or draw 63%.
Brusque arrive in good touch: 3W-0D-2L from their last five (9/15 pts), 6 scored and 5 conceded. Recent results: W 1-0 v Ituano, L 0-1 @ AO Itabaiana, W 3-1 v Figueirense, L 0-2 @ Botafogo PB.
Ituano are out of sorts: 0W-2D-3L from their last five (2/15 pts, 3 straight defeats), 1 scored and 5 conceded. Recent results: L 0-1 @ Brusque, L 1-3 v Ferroviária, L 0-1 @ Santa Cruz, D 0-0 v Maranhão.
Brusque hold the recent head-to-head, 4 wins to 3 with 3 drawn across the last 10 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: Brusque 1-0 Ituano.
The market prices BRU at 42% implied. Our number sits apart on Ituano: a 2.8-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 51 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output