Penarol v Danubio: the model read
Penarol meet Danubio in the Primera División - Apertura apertura - 5 at Estadio Campeón del Siglo, Montevideo. The model makes Penarol the most likely outcome at 39%, with the full read 39% PEN, 32% draw, 28% DAN.
The baseline ratings are close, 1500 to 1400, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form leans Penarol, 50% against 38%. Attacking output favors Penarol on expected goals, 1.2 to 0.9 per match.
Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 36%, over 2.5 goals around 32%. Draw no bet leans Penarol at 58%; double chance reads Penarol or draw 72%, Danubio or draw 61%.
Penarol arrive steady: 2W-1D-2L from their last five (7/15 pts), 5 scored and 3 conceded. Recent results: W 3-0 v Boston River, D 1-1 @ Racing Montevideo, W 1-0 @ Cerro, L 0-1 v Central Espanol.
Danubio are patchy: 0W-3D-2L from their last five (3/15 pts), 2 scored and 4 conceded. Recent results: L 0-1 @ Atletico Torque, D 0-0 v Club Nacional, D 1-1 v Juventud, D 0-0 @ Wanderers.
Penarol hold the recent head-to-head, 6 wins to 2 with 2 drawn across the last 10 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: Penarol 1-1 Danubio.
Market prices for this fixture have not settled yet. The edge reads as soon as real odds arrive.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 52 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
