Yarmouk v Al Sahel

Yarmouk meet Al Sahel in the Division 1 regular season - 14. The model makes Yarmouk the most likely outcome at 35%, with the full read 35% YAR, 30% draw, 35% AL .

The baseline ratings are close, 1592 to 1615, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form separates little, 60% against 65%. Attacking output favors Yarmouk on expected goals, 2.0 to 1.4 per match.

Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 56%, over 2.5 goals around 52%. Draw no bet leans Yarmouk at 50%; double chance reads Yarmouk or draw 65%, Al Sahel or draw 65%.

Yarmouk arrive patchy: 1W-2D-2L from their last five (5/15 pts), 8 scored and 9 conceded. Recent results: L 0-1 v Al Sahel, D 3-3 v Al Jazira, L 2-3 @ Al Nasar, D 2-2 @ Al Sulaibikhat.

Al Sahel are steady: 2W-0D-3L from their last five (6/15 pts), 7 scored and 9 conceded. Recent results: W 1-0 @ Yarmouk, L 1-4 v Al Sulaibikhat, L 0-2 @ Al Arabi, L 1-3 v Al Jazira.

Al Sahel hold the recent head-to-head, 5 wins to 1 with 4 drawn across the last 10 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: Yarmouk 0-1 Al Sahel.

The market prices YAR at 40% implied. Our number sits apart on the draw: a 3.4-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.

MeisterIQ rates the signal 51 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.