Boeung Ket held off a determined Kompong Dewa comeback to win 4-3 at the National Olympic Stadium, but the final scoreline painted a far closer contest than their three-goal half-time lead suggested. The Lemeister model had projected a 2-1 home victory for Boeung Ket, favouring them with a 40 per cent win probability. The actual result, while a win, required a penalty to stem a dramatic second-half surge from their opponents, and the aggregate of seven goals exceeded the model's projection of a combined three.
Boeung Ket seized control inside the opening 36 minutes with three unanswered goals. M. Bevan opened the scoring in the second minute, assisted by R. Sath, before C. Dehmie doubled the lead from L. Zabala's assist in the 24th minute. S. Eav made it three in the 36th minute, N. Soeuth providing the assist for a half-time lead that appeared commanding. The speed of the strikes was notable: three goals inside the first 36 minutes from three different scorers, each set up by a different creator, suggesting a well-distributed attack that found space against the Kompong Dewa defence early on.
The second half witnessed a complete shift in momentum. Kompong Dewa reduced the deficit in the 77th minute when A. Lucas finished from A. Mirzaev's pass. Boeung Ket restored their three-goal cushion three minutes later when C. Dehmie converted a penalty awarded in the 80th minute, his second goal of the match. That penalty proved decisive in the final reckoning, as it stretched the lead back to three goals before Kompong Dewa's late double made the margin a single goal. But Kompong Dewa refused to fold. R. Mon struck twice in the closing stages, first from A. Mirzaev's second assist in the 84th minute, then from V. Mon's pass in the 90th minute, setting up a tense stoppage time that Boeung Ket survived with four minutes of added time.
The disciplinary record was heavily one-sided in the first period. Kompong Dewa collected three yellow cards by the 39th minute, including for R. Mon, B. San and V. Vong, suggesting a physical frustration as they trailed by three goals after a disastrous quarter of the match. A. Mirzaev was also booked in the 81st minute, moments after conceding the penalty. Boeung Ket received four yellows, all in the second half: T. Bunchhai was cautioned in the 69th minute, while D. Nop and A. Lim Raymond were each booked in stoppage time as the home side tried to manage the closing stages. The five home substitutions and four away substitutions did little to alter the game's central narrative of a first-half onslaught and a second-half chase, though the timing of Boeung Ket's second-half bookings suggests a side under significant pressure.
Without match-level statistics, the raw goal sequence tells the story of a contest decided by clinical finishing in the first period and nerve in the second. Boeung Ket's three quick goals before the break were enough to build an edge that survived 45 minutes of sustained Kompong Dewa pressure. C. Dehmie's brace, which included the crucial penalty, marked him as the decisive performer, while R. Mon's double for Kompong Dewa ensured they left with something from a match that had seemed beyond them at half-time. The Lemeister model's 40 per cent home win probability reflected a close contest, and the one-goal margin bore that out, even if the path to it was far from the 2-1 projection.
The result places Boeung Ket on three points from their C-League group stage opener, while Kompong Dewa start their campaign without a point. The nature of the collapse and recovery will give both sides material to work with: Boeung Ket will need to address their second-half fragility, while Kompong Dewa can take heart from a 45-minute display that nearly salvaged an improbable outcome against the Lemeister model's favoured side. The group stage remains in its infancy, but the goal difference swing of plus one for Boeung Ket and minus one for Kompong Dewa could matter in a tight table.
