Where the market is wrong on ML Vitebsk v Torpedo Zhodino
ML Vitebsk meet Torpedo Zhodino in the Premier League regular season - 16 at Vitebsk CSK, Vitebsk. The model makes ML Vitebsk the most likely outcome at 36%, with the full read 36% ML , 30% draw, 34% TOR.
The baseline ratings are close, 1611 to 1523, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form leans ML Vitebsk, 64% against 53%. Attacking output favors ML Vitebsk on expected goals, 2.1 to 1.4 per match.
Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 57%, over 2.5 goals around 53%. Draw no bet leans ML Vitebsk at 51%; double chance reads ML Vitebsk or draw 66%, Torpedo Zhodino or draw 64%.
ML Vitebsk arrive in good touch: 3W-0D-2L from their last five (9/15 pts), 10 scored and 8 conceded. Recent results: W 3-0 v Sutjeska, L 0-1 @ Universitatea Craiova, L 1-4 v Universitatea Craiova, W 4-2 @ Slavia Mozyr.
Torpedo Zhodino are steady: 2W-0D-3L from their last five (6/15 pts), 8 scored and 5 conceded. Recent results: L 1-2 v FC Dnepr Mogilev, W 4-0 @ Lida, L 0-1 @ Baranovichi, L 0-2 v FC Isloch Minsk R..
The market prices ML at 49% implied. Our number sits apart on Torpedo Zhodino: a 9.0-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 51 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
