Capitao Poco v Castanhal: the model read
Capitao Poco meet Castanhal in the Paraense quarter-finals. The model makes Capitao Poco the most likely outcome at 36%, with the full read 36% CAP, 33% draw, 31% CAS.
The baseline ratings are close, 1512 to 1454, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form separates little, 53% against 45%. Attacking output favors Capitao Poco on expected goals, 1.1 to 1.0 per match.
Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 37%, over 2.5 goals around 30%. Draw no bet leans Capitao Poco at 54%; double chance reads Capitao Poco or draw 69%, Castanhal or draw 64%.
Capitao Poco arrive in good touch: 3W-1D-1L from their last five (10/15 pts), 6 scored and 3 conceded. Recent results: W 1-0 @ Castanhal, D 1-1 @ Cametá, W 2-1 v Tuna Luso, L 0-1 v Castanhal.
Castanhal are out of sorts: 0W-2D-3L from their last five (2/15 pts, 2 straight defeats), 1 scored and 7 conceded. Recent results: L 0-4 v Nova Iguaçu, L 0-1 v Capitao Poco, D 0-0 v Águia de Marabá, D 1-1 v Guarani Campinas.
Market prices for this fixture have not settled yet. The edge reads as soon as real odds arrive.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 51 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output