Where the market is wrong on Johvi Phoenix v Tartu Kalev
Johvi Phoenix meet Tartu Kalev in the Esiliiga B regular season - 26.
The baseline ratings are close, 1569 to 1592, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form separates little, 57% against 60%. Attacking output favors Tartu Kalev on expected goals, 3.0 to 2.1 per match.
Johvi Phoenix arrive patchy: 1W-1D-3L from their last five (4/15 pts), 6 scored and 11 conceded. Recent results: L 0-3 v Tartu Kalev, W 3-2 @ Luunja, D 2-2 v JK Tabasalu, L 0-1 @ Narva U21.
Tartu Kalev are in good touch: 3W-1D-1L from their last five (10/15 pts), 7 scored and 10 conceded. Recent results: W 3-0 @ Johvi Phoenix, D 1-1 v Tallinna Kalev II, W 2-1 v Luunja, W 1-0 v Parnu JK Vaprus U21.
Johvi Phoenix hold the recent head-to-head, 5 wins to 4 with 1 drawn across the last 10 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: Johvi Phoenix 0-3 Tartu Kalev.
The market prices JOH at 48% implied. Our number sits apart on Tartu Kalev: a 10.1-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 77 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
