Penarol v Deportivo Maldonado: the model read
Penarol meet Deportivo Maldonado in the Primera División - Apertura apertura - 3 at Estadio Campeón del Siglo, Montevideo. The model makes Deportivo Maldonado the most likely outcome at 38%, with the full read 30% PEN, 32% draw, 38% DEP.
The baseline ratings are close, 1500 to 1615, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form leans Deportivo Maldonado, 65% against 50%. Attacking output favors Deportivo Maldonado on expected goals, 1.6 to 1.2 per match.
Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 43%, over 2.5 goals around 38%. Draw no bet leans Deportivo Maldonado at 56%; double chance reads Penarol or draw 62%, Deportivo Maldonado or draw 70%.
Penarol arrive steady: 2W-1D-2L from their last five (7/15 pts), 5 scored and 3 conceded. Recent results: W 3-0 v Boston River, D 1-1 @ Racing Montevideo, W 1-0 @ Cerro, L 0-1 v Central Espanol.
Deportivo Maldonado are steady: 2W-2D-1L from their last five (8/15 pts), 9 scored and 5 conceded. Recent results: L 0-1 @ Progreso, D 1-1 v Albion FC, W 4-2 @ Atletico Torque, W 3-0 v Club Nacional.
Penarol hold the recent head-to-head, 6 wins to 1 with 3 drawn across the last 10 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: Penarol 2-1 Deportivo Maldonado.
Market prices for this fixture have not settled yet. The edge reads as soon as real odds arrive.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 52 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
