Sport Recife v Cuiaba

Sport Recife meet Cuiaba in the Serie B regular season - 20 at Estadio Adelmar da Costa Carvalho, Recife. The model makes Sport Recife the most likely outcome at 40%, with the full read 40% SPO, 33% draw, 27% CUI.

The baseline ratings are close, 1546 to 1443, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form leans Sport Recife, 57% against 43%. Attacking output favors Sport Recife on expected goals, 1.4 to 0.8 per match.

Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 28%, over 2.5 goals around 24%. Draw no bet leans Sport Recife at 60%; double chance reads Sport Recife or draw 73%, Cuiaba or draw 60%.

Sport Recife arrive patchy: 0W-3D-2L from their last five (3/15 pts, 3 unbeaten), 7 scored and 9 conceded. Recent results: D 1-1 @ Goias, D 2-2 v Operario-PR, D 3-3 v Botafogo SP, L 0-1 @ Criciuma.

Cuiaba are patchy: 1W-2D-2L from their last five (5/15 pts, 2 straight defeats), 5 scored and 7 conceded. Recent results: L 0-1 v Atletico Goianiense, L 0-2 @ Juventude, D 2-2 @ São Bernardo, W 1-0 v America Mineiro.

The recent head-to-head is even, 1 apiece with 3 drawn across the last 5 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: Cuiaba 0-0 Sport Recife.

The market prices SPO at 47% implied. Our number sits apart on Cuiaba: a 4.2-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.

MeisterIQ rates the signal 52 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.