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Copa del Rey · Semi-finals · Spain

Atletico Madrid v Barcelona

4-0Full time· Metropolitano Stadium, Madrid· Referee: J. Martinez

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Match analysisPre-match brief

Atletico Madrid v Barcelona: the model read

Atletico Madrid meet Barcelona in the Copa del Rey semi-finals at Metropolitano Stadium, Madrid.

Barcelona rate clearly stronger on the baseline, 1719 to 1535. Recent form leans Barcelona, 78% against 53%. Attacking output favors Barcelona on expected goals, 2.3 to 1.6 per match.

Atletico Madrid arrive in good touch: 3W-1D-1L from their last five (10/15 pts), 10 scored and 7 conceded. Recent results: W 3-1 @ Sevilla, D 2-2 v Villarreal, W 2-0 v Malaga, W 2-1 @ Marseille.

Barcelona are surging: 5W-0D-0L from their last five (15/15 pts, 5 straight wins), 19 scored and 5 conceded. Recent results: W 5-2 v Rayo Vallecano, W 2-0 v Athletic Club, W 5-0 @ Elche, W 2-1 v Al Ahly.

Barcelona hold the recent head-to-head, 6 wins to 3 with 1 drawn across the last 10 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: Atletico Madrid 1-2 Barcelona.

Market prices for this fixture have not settled yet. The edge reads as soon as real odds arrive.

MeisterIQ rates the signal 54 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.

Written from the MeisterIQ model output

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Atletico Madrid

LWWDW9-3-8

Scored 1.65 · Conceded 1.50 · Clean sheets 20% · BTTS 70%

  • WASevilla3-1
  • DHVillarreal2-2
  • WHMalaga2-0
  • WAMarseille2-1
  • LAManchester City1-3

Barcelona

WWWWW15-1-4

Scored 2.25 · Conceded 1.00 · Clean sheets 30% · BTTS 55%

  • WHRayo Vallecano5-2
  • WHAthletic Club2-0
  • WAElche5-0
  • WHAl Ahly2-1
  • WAFC Basel 18935-2

Head-to-head

10 meetings

Atletico MadridrecordBarcelona
3
6
1 draw

Goals

17-20

for each

Avg goals

3.7

per game

BTTS

60%

both scored

Over 2.5

80%

3+ goals

Atletico Madrid

Recent
LWLLWL
Wins 3Goals 17-20

Biggest win 4-0

Barcelona

Recent
WLWWLW
Wins 6Goals 20-17

Biggest win 3-0

  • Atletico Madrid1-2Barcelona
  • Barcelona0-2Atletico Madrid
  • Atletico Madrid1-2Barcelona
  • Barcelona3-0Atletico Madrid
  • Atletico Madrid4-0Barcelona
  • Barcelona3-1Atletico Madrid
  • Atletico Madrid0-1Barcelona
  • Atletico Madrid2-4Barcelona
  • Barcelona4-4Atletico Madrid
  • Barcelona1-2Atletico Madrid

Managers

D. Simeone

Argentina · 55

In charge since 2011 · 6 teams managed

  • Racing Club2011–2011
  • Catania2011–2011
  • San Lorenzo2009–2010
  • River Plate2007–2008

H. Flick

Germany · 60

In charge since 2024 · 3 teams managed

  • Germany2021–2023
  • Bayern Munich2019–2021

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Real data only: recent results, head-to-head and market odds. No model output is shown for teams without Lemeister priors.