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Copa del Rey · Semi-finals · Spain

Athletic Club v Real Sociedad

0-1Full time· San Mamés, Bilbao· Referee: J. Sanchez

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Match analysisPre-match brief

Athletic Club v Real Sociedad: the model read

Athletic Club meet Real Sociedad in the Copa del Rey semi-finals at San Mamés, Bilbao.

The baseline ratings are close, 1489 to 1408, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form separates little, 45% against 38%. Attacking output favors Athletic Club on expected goals, 2.0 to 1.5 per match.

Athletic Club arrive patchy: 1W-0D-4L from their last five (3/15 pts), 4 scored and 9 conceded. Recent results: W 2-0 @ Celta Vigo, L 0-2 @ Barcelona, L 1-3 v Sevilla, L 1-3 @ Zaragoza.

Real Sociedad are patchy: 1W-0D-4L from their last five (3/15 pts), 5 scored and 11 conceded. Recent results: W 2-1 v Espanyol, L 1-4 @ Real Madrid, L 0-1 @ Real Betis, L 1-3 @ Chelsea.

Market prices for this fixture have not settled yet. The edge reads as soon as real odds arrive.

MeisterIQ rates the signal 53 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.

Written from the MeisterIQ model output

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Athletic Club

LLLLW8-2-10

Scored 2.00 · Conceded 1.45 · Clean sheets 35% · BTTS 45%

  • WACelta Vigo2-0
  • LABarcelona0-2
  • LHSevilla1-3
  • LAZaragoza1-3
  • LAAtalanta0-1

Real Sociedad

LLLLW4-7-9

Scored 1.50 · Conceded 1.80 · Clean sheets 5% · BTTS 75%

  • WHEspanyol2-1
  • LAReal Madrid1-4
  • LAReal Betis0-1
  • LAChelsea1-3
  • LA1. FC Köln1-2

Managers

Edin Terzic

Head coach

In charge since 2026

Pellegrino Matarazzo

Head coach

In charge since 2025

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Real data only: recent results, head-to-head and market odds. No model output is shown for teams without Lemeister priors.