Where the market is wrong on FC Tallinn v Nõmme Kalju II
FC Tallinn meet Nõmme Kalju II in the Esiliiga A regular season - 26.
The baseline ratings are close, 1443 to 1400, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form separates little, 40% against 33%. Attacking output favors Nõmme Kalju II on expected goals, 1.4 to 1.1 per match.
FC Tallinn arrive out of sorts: 0W-2D-3L from their last five (2/15 pts, 2 straight defeats), 3 scored and 7 conceded. Recent results: L 0-2 v Nõmme Kalju II, L 1-2 @ FCI Levadia II, D 1-1 v Nõmme United II, L 0-1 @ Maardu.
Nõmme Kalju II are patchy: 1W-0D-4L from their last five (3/15 pts), 4 scored and 12 conceded. Recent results: W 2-0 @ FC Tallinn, L 2-4 v Tartu Welco, L 0-3 v Tallinna Kalev, L 0-2 @ Nõmme United II.
FC Tallinn hold the recent head-to-head, 5 wins to 2 across the last 7 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: FC Tallinn 0-2 Nõmme Kalju II.
The market prices FC at 47% implied. Our number sits apart on the draw: a 6.1-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 52 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
