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Liga Pro · Regular Season - 30 · Ecuador

Libertad v Independiente del Valle

· Estadio Federativo Reina del Cisne, Loja

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Match analysisPre-match brief

Libertad v Independiente del Valle: the model read

Libertad meet Independiente del Valle in the Liga Pro regular season - 30 at Estadio Federativo Reina del Cisne, Loja. The model makes Independiente del Valle the most likely outcome at 57%, with the full read 18% LIB, 25% draw, 57% IND.

Independiente del Valle rate clearly stronger on the baseline, 1811 to 1431. Recent form leans Independiente del Valle, 90% against 40%. Attacking output favors Independiente del Valle on expected goals, 2.6 to 0.9 per match.

Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 37%, over 2.5 goals around 69%. Draw no bet leans Independiente del Valle at 77%; double chance reads Libertad or draw 43%, Independiente del Valle or draw 82%.

Libertad arrive in good touch: 3W-1D-1L from their last five (10/15 pts, 2 straight wins), 4 scored and 1 conceded. Recent results: W 2-0 @ Mushuc Runa SC, W 1-0 v Delfin SC, L 0-1 @ Barcelona SC, W 1-0 v Tecnico Universitario.

Independiente del Valle are surging: 5W-0D-0L from their last five (15/15 pts, 5 straight wins), 16 scored and 3 conceded. Recent results: W 1-0 v Manta FC, W 3-2 @ Orense SC, W 3-0 v Tecnico Universitario, W 6-1 v Emelec.

Independiente del Valle hold the recent head-to-head, 3 wins to 2 with 4 drawn across the last 9 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: Independiente del Valle 2-3 Libertad.

Market prices for this fixture have not settled yet. The edge reads as soon as real odds arrive.

MeisterIQ rates the signal 57 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.

Written from the MeisterIQ model output

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Libertad

DWLWW5-6-9

Scored 0.90 · Conceded 1.25 · Clean sheets 30% · BTTS 45%

  • WAMushuc Runa SC2-0
  • WHDelfin SC1-0
  • LABarcelona SC0-1
  • WHTecnico Universitario1-0
  • DALDU de Quito0-0

Independiente del Valle

WWWWW18-0-2

Scored 2.65 · Conceded 0.85 · Clean sheets 50% · BTTS 45%

  • WHManta FC1-0
  • WAOrense SC3-2
  • WHTecnico Universitario3-0
  • WHEmelec6-1
  • WAAucas3-0

Head-to-head

9 meetings

LibertadrecordIndependiente del Valle
2
3
4 draws

Goals

9-13

for each

Avg goals

2.4

per game

BTTS

56%

both scored

Over 2.5

33%

3+ goals

Libertad

Recent
WDLDWD
Wins 2Goals 9-13

Biggest win 2-0

Independiente del Valle

Recent
LDWDLD
Wins 3Goals 13-9

Biggest win 3-0

  • Independiente del Valle2-3Libertad
  • Independiente del Valle1-1Libertad
  • Libertad1-3Independiente del Valle
  • Independiente del Valle1-1Libertad
  • Libertad2-0Independiente del Valle
  • Libertad1-1Independiente del Valle
  • Independiente del Valle3-0Libertad
  • Independiente del Valle2-0Libertad
  • Libertad0-0Independiente del Valle

Managers

J. León

Ecuador · 50

In charge since 2024 · 4 clubs managed

  • Orense2022–2023
  • 9 de Octubre2020–2022
  • Independiente U202012–2018

Javier Rabanal

Head coach

In charge since 2025

Real data only: recent results, head-to-head and market odds. No model output is shown for teams without Lemeister priors.