Where the market is wrong on Guayaquil City FC v Universidad Catolica
Guayaquil City FC meet Universidad Catolica in the Liga Pro regular season - 22. The model makes Universidad Catolica the most likely outcome at 40%, with the full read 28% GUA, 32% draw, 40% UNI.
The baseline ratings are close, 1489 to 1569, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form leans Universidad Catolica, 57% against 48%. Attacking output favors Universidad Catolica on expected goals, 1.6 to 0.9 per match.
Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 40%, over 2.5 goals around 37%. Draw no bet leans Universidad Catolica at 59%; double chance reads Guayaquil City FC or draw 60%, Universidad Catolica or draw 72%.
Guayaquil City FC arrive steady: 2W-2D-1L from their last five (8/15 pts, 4 unbeaten), 5 scored and 4 conceded. Recent results: D 1-1 @ Leones del Norte, W 1-0 v Manta FC, D 1-1 @ Barcelona SC, W 2-1 v Delfin SC.
Universidad Catolica are in good touch: 3W-0D-2L from their last five (9/15 pts, 3 straight wins), 7 scored and 5 conceded. Recent results: W 2-1 v Barcelona SC, W 2-0 @ Deportivo Cuenca, W 1-0 v LDU de Quito, L 0-1 @ Leones del Norte.
The market prices GUA at 25% implied. Our number sits apart on the draw: a 3.8-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 52 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output