Orense SC v Aucas

Orense SC meet Aucas in the Liga Pro regular season - 21 at Estadio 9 de Mayo, Machala. The model makes Aucas the most likely outcome at 39%, with the full read 30% ORE, 31% draw, 39% AUC.

Aucas rate clearly stronger on the baseline, 1604 to 1466. Recent form leans Aucas, 63% against 43%. Attacking output favors Orense SC on expected goals, 1.3 to 1.3 per match.

Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 48%, over 2.5 goals around 44%. Draw no bet leans Aucas at 57%; double chance reads Orense SC or draw 61%, Aucas or draw 70%.

Orense SC arrive patchy: 1W-1D-3L from their last five (4/15 pts), 5 scored and 8 conceded. Recent results: L 2-3 v Independiente del Valle, W 2-1 v Aucas, L 1-2 @ Mushuc Runa SC, L 0-2 v Emelec.

Aucas are steady: 2W-0D-3L from their last five (6/15 pts, 2 straight defeats), 4 scored and 9 conceded. Recent results: L 1-4 v Macara, L 1-2 @ Orense SC, W 1-0 @ Tecnico Universitario, L 0-3 v Independiente del Valle.

Aucas hold the recent head-to-head, 5 wins to 3 with 2 drawn across the last 10 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: Orense SC 2-1 Aucas.

The market prices ORE at 37% implied. Our number sits apart on Aucas: a 5.3-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.

MeisterIQ rates the signal 65 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.