Emelec v Libertad: the model read
Emelec meet Libertad in the Liga Pro regular season - 13 at Estadio George Capwell, Guayaquil. The model makes the draw the most likely outcome at 35%, with the full read 33% EME, 35% draw, 33% LIB.
The baseline ratings are close, 1477 to 1431, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form separates little, 48% against 40%. Attacking output favors Libertad on expected goals, 0.9 to 0.8 per match.
Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 27%, over 2.5 goals around 19%. Draw no bet leans Emelec at 50%; double chance reads Emelec or draw 67%, Libertad or draw 67%.
Emelec arrive patchy: 1W-2D-2L from their last five (5/15 pts), 5 scored and 9 conceded. Recent results: L 1-2 @ Deportivo Cuenca, D 1-1 v Mushuc Runa SC, L 1-6 @ Independiente del Valle, W 2-0 @ Orense SC.
Libertad are in good touch: 3W-1D-1L from their last five (10/15 pts, 2 straight wins), 4 scored and 1 conceded. Recent results: W 2-0 @ Mushuc Runa SC, W 1-0 v Delfin SC, L 0-1 @ Barcelona SC, W 1-0 v Tecnico Universitario.
Market prices for this fixture have not settled yet. The edge reads as soon as real odds arrive.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 50 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
