Where the market is wrong on Navbahor v Qizilqum
Navbahor meet Qizilqum in the Super League regular season - 13 at Markaziy Stadium, Namangan. The model makes Navbahor the most likely outcome at 39%, with the full read 39% NAV, 31% draw, 29% QIZ.
The baseline ratings are close, 1516 to 1456, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form leans Navbahor, 53% against 42%. Attacking output favors Navbahor on expected goals, 1.1 to 1.1 per match.
Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 43%, over 2.5 goals around 39%. Draw no bet leans Navbahor at 58%; double chance reads Navbahor or draw 71%, Qizilqum or draw 61%.
Navbahor arrive patchy: 0W-3D-2L from their last five (3/15 pts), 5 scored and 7 conceded. Recent results: D 1-1 v Qizilqum, L 2-3 v Olmaliq, D 0-0 @ Nasaf, L 1-2 @ Bunyodkor.
Qizilqum are patchy: 1W-2D-2L from their last five (5/15 pts), 4 scored and 5 conceded. Recent results: D 1-1 @ Navbahor, L 1-2 v Dinamo Samarqand, L 0-1 @ Lokomotiv, D 0-0 v Xorazm.
The market prices NAV at 69% implied. Our number sits apart on Qizilqum: a 19.2-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 52 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
