Grobiņa v Ogre United

Grobiņa meet Ogre United in the Virsliga regular season - 24. The model makes Grobiņa the most likely outcome at 35%, with the full read 35% GRO, 31% draw, 35% OGR.

The baseline ratings are close, 1400 to 1400, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form separates little, 35% against 28%. Attacking output favors Ogre United on expected goals, 1.1 to 0.8 per match.

Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 56%, over 2.5 goals around 52%. Draw no bet leans Grobiņa at 50%; double chance reads Grobiņa or draw 65%, Ogre United or draw 65%.

Grobiņa arrive steady: 2W-1D-2L from their last five (7/15 pts), 6 scored and 7 conceded. Recent results: D 2-2 v Ogre United, L 0-2 @ Super Nova, W 1-0 @ Mārupe, W 3-1 v Tukums.

Ogre United are in good touch: 3W-0D-2L from their last five (9/15 pts), 9 scored and 13 conceded. Recent results: L 0-4 v BFC Daugavpils, W 4-2 @ Valmiera / BSS, W 2-1 @ Super Nova, L 0-4 @ FK Liepaja.

Their last 3 meetings are tight — 3 drawn. Most recently they met in 2026: Grobiņa 2-2 Ogre United.

The market prices GRO at 50% implied. Our number sits apart on Ogre United: a 11.2-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.

MeisterIQ rates the signal 50 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.