Caldas v 1º Dezembro: the model read
Caldas meet 1º Dezembro in the Liga 3 relegation group - 1 at Campo da Mata, Caldas da Rainha. The model makes 1º Dezembro the most likely outcome at 38%, with the full read 29% CAL, 33% draw, 38% 1º .
The baseline ratings are close, 1400 to 1431, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form separates little, 33% against 40%. Attacking output favors 1º Dezembro on expected goals, 1.1 to 0.8 per match.
Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 32%, over 2.5 goals around 26%. Draw no bet leans 1º Dezembro at 57%; double chance reads Caldas or draw 62%, 1º Dezembro or draw 71%.
Caldas arrive patchy: 1W-2D-2L from their last five (5/15 pts), 5 scored and 7 conceded. Recent results: L 1-2 @ 1º Dezembro, D 1-1 v SC Covilha, L 0-2 @ Atlético CP, W 2-1 @ Amora.
1º Dezembro are steady: 2W-0D-3L from their last five (6/15 pts, 2 straight wins), 5 scored and 6 conceded. Recent results: W 2-1 v Caldas, W 1-0 @ Atlético CP, L 0-1 v Amora, L 1-2 @ Lusitano Évora 1911.
Caldas hold the recent head-to-head, 4 wins to 3 with 3 drawn across the last 10 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: 1º Dezembro 2-1 Caldas.
Market prices for this fixture have not settled yet. The edge reads as soon as real odds arrive.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 51 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
