Where the market is wrong on Afturelding v HK Kopavogur
Afturelding meet HK Kopavogur in the 1. Deild regular season - 19.
Afturelding rate clearly stronger on the baseline, 1707 to 1558. Recent form leans Afturelding, 78% against 55%. Attacking output favors Afturelding on expected goals, 3.3 to 2.1 per match.
Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 87%, over 2.5 goals around 94%. Draw no bet leans Afturelding at 63%; double chance reads Afturelding or draw 72%, HK Kopavogur or draw 53%.
Afturelding arrive steady: 2W-2D-1L from their last five (8/15 pts), 17 scored and 10 conceded. Recent results: W 7-0 @ Ægir, D 2-2 v HK Kopavogur, D 3-3 @ Fylkir, W 4-1 v Grindavik.
HK Kopavogur are steady: 2W-1D-2L from their last five (7/15 pts), 11 scored and 9 conceded. Recent results: W 3-0 v Throttur Reykjavik, D 2-2 @ Afturelding, W 2-1 v Leiknir R., L 2-3 @ Völsungur.
HK Kopavogur hold the recent head-to-head, 6 wins to 0 with 2 drawn across the last 8 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: Afturelding 2-2 HK Kopavogur.
The market prices AFT at 58% implied. Our number sits apart on HK Kopavogur: a 6.6-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 54 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
