Where the market is wrong on Real Monarchs v Minnesota United II
Real Monarchs meet Minnesota United II in the MLS Next Pro group stage at Zions Bank Stadium, undefined.
The baseline ratings are close, 1400 to 1500, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form leans Minnesota United II, 50% against 33%. Attacking output favors Minnesota United II on expected goals, 1.6 to 1.2 per match.
Real Monarchs arrive patchy: 1W-1D-3L from their last five (4/15 pts), 5 scored and 12 conceded. Recent results: D 0-0 v Minnesota United II, L 0-4 @ The Town, L 1-4 @ North Texas, W 3-0 v Tacoma Defiance.
Minnesota United II are in good touch: 3W-2D-0L from their last five (11/15 pts, 5 unbeaten), 10 scored and 2 conceded. Recent results: D 0-0 @ Real Monarchs, W 5-1 v Vancouver Whitecaps II, W 2-0 v Colorado Rapids II, W 2-0 @ Houston Dynamo FC II.
The market prices REA at 34% implied. Our number sits apart on the draw: a 4.8-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 59 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
