Tacoma Defiance v Colorado Rapids II

Tacoma Defiance meet Colorado Rapids II in the MLS Next Pro group stage at Starfire Sports, undefined. The model makes Tacoma Defiance the most likely outcome at 44%, with the full read 44% TAC, 30% draw, 26% COL.

The baseline ratings are close, 1512 to 1400, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form leans Tacoma Defiance, 50% against 23%. Attacking output favors Tacoma Defiance on expected goals, 1.3 to 0.9 per match.

Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 46%, over 2.5 goals around 50%. Draw no bet leans Tacoma Defiance at 62%; double chance reads Tacoma Defiance or draw 74%, Colorado Rapids II or draw 56%.

Tacoma Defiance arrive in good touch: 3W-1D-1L from their last five (10/15 pts, 3 straight wins), 9 scored and 7 conceded. Recent results: W 2-1 v Colorado Rapids II, W 4-2 @ Real Monarchs, W 1-0 @ The Town, L 0-2 v Portland Timbers II.

Colorado Rapids II are steady: 2W-0D-3L from their last five (6/15 pts, 2 straight defeats), 6 scored and 7 conceded. Recent results: L 1-2 @ Tacoma Defiance, L 1-2 @ Houston Dynamo FC II, W 1-0 v North Texas, L 2-3 @ Austin II.

The market prices TAC at 50% implied. Our number sits apart on the draw: a 5.2-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.

MeisterIQ rates the signal 53 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.