Where the market is wrong on IFK Trelleborg v Lilla Torg
IFK Trelleborg meet Lilla Torg in the Division 2 - Södra Götaland södra götaland - 18.
IFK Trelleborg rate clearly stronger on the baseline, 1592 to 1432. Recent form leans IFK Trelleborg, 63% against 42%. Attacking output favors IFK Trelleborg on expected goals, 1.8 to 1.1 per match.
Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 50%, over 2.5 goals around 63%. Draw no bet leans IFK Trelleborg at 67%; double chance reads IFK Trelleborg or draw 76%, Lilla Torg or draw 52%.
IFK Trelleborg arrive in good touch: 4W-0D-1L from their last five (12/15 pts, 4 straight wins), 15 scored and 4 conceded. Recent results: W 2-0 v Lilla Torg, W 3-0 @ Nosaby, W 5-1 @ Karlshamn, W 4-0 v Växjö Norra.
Lilla Torg are out of sorts: 0W-2D-3L from their last five (2/15 pts, 2 straight defeats), 6 scored and 12 conceded. Recent results: L 0-2 @ IFK Trelleborg, L 1-4 v Karlskrona, D 1-1 @ Staffanstorp United, L 2-3 v Oskarshamns AIK.
The market prices IFK at 64% implied. Our number sits apart on Lilla Torg: a 7.8-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 55 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output