Where the market is wrong on Ahlafors v Kumla
Ahlafors meet Kumla in the Division 2 - Norra Götaland norra götaland - 19.
Ahlafors rate clearly stronger on the baseline, 1615 to 1454. Recent form leans Ahlafors, 68% against 43%. Attacking output favors Ahlafors on expected goals, 2.4 to 1.1 per match.
Ahlafors arrive in good touch: 3W-2D-0L from their last five (11/15 pts), 14 scored and 4 conceded. Recent results: W 7-1 v Kumla, D 2-2 @ Lidköping, W 3-1 v Grebbestad, W 2-0 v IF Karlstad II.
Kumla are patchy: 1W-0D-4L from their last five (3/15 pts, 3 straight defeats), 5 scored and 21 conceded. Recent results: L 1-7 @ Ahlafors, L 2-6 v Husqvarna, L 0-5 @ Stenungsund, W 2-1 v Vänersborgs IF.
Ahlafors hold the recent head-to-head, 7 wins to 0 with 3 drawn across the last 10 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: Ahlafors 7-1 Kumla.
The market prices AHL at 61% implied. Our number sits apart on Kumla: a 3.6-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 57 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
