Real Madrid Women secured their place in the Supercopa Femenina final with a 3-1 victory over Atletico Madrid Women at the Estadio Municipal de Castalia, a result overwhelmingly decided by a blistering 18-minute spell in the first half. The Lemeister model had projected a 3-1 scoreline with Real Madrid as 48% favourites, and the final outcome followed that forecast almost exactly, with the home side's early efficiency proving the decisive factor.
The match was effectively settled inside the opening quarter-hour. A. del Castillo opened the scoring in the sixth minute with a normal goal, giving Real Madrid an immediate platform. C. Weir doubled the advantage in the 15th minute, adding her name to the scoresheet, and the Scottish midfielder turned provider three minutes later, when L. Caicedo converted in the 18th minute for a third goal without reply. That trio of strikes, all arriving before the 20-minute mark, established an insurmountable lead that Atletico Madrid could not overcome.
The statistical story underscores a contest that was tighter than the first-half blitz suggests. Real Madrid's efficiency was critical: their three goals came from a concentrated spell of precision, while Atletico Madrid, despite trailing, maintained a competitive structure throughout. Possession and total shots data, though not provided in detail here, would likely reflect a match that was not one-sided in territorial terms, but the home side's ability to convert their early chances was the fundamental difference. Real Madrid amassed three yellow cards in the second period, with N. Feller and L. Caicedo booked in the 57th minute and S. Dabritz cautioned in the 64th, indicating some loss of control as Atletico pushed back. Atletico Madrid's A. Medina received a yellow card in the 85th minute.
Atletico Madrid grew into the contest after the interval and found a measure of reward in the 72nd minute. Luany scored a normal goal, with Alexia providing the assist, to reduce the deficit to 3-1. That goal gave the visitors a foothold, but they could not build on it further. Despite 18 minutes of added time to find a second goal, they managed only that one strike, reflecting a lack of sustained threat against the Real Madrid defence. The visitors made three substitutions compared to Real Madrid's five, but none of the changes altered the trajectory of the match.
C. Weir was the standout performer for Real Madrid, directly contributing to two of the three goals with her goal in the 15th minute and assist for L. Caicedo in the 18th. A. del Castillo and L. Caicedo also delivered crucial contributions with their early strikes. For Atletico Madrid, Luany’s goal and Alexia’s assist provided the late consolation, but the team lacked the sustained thrust beyond that moment. The match ratings, though not listed in detail, would reflect the efficiency of the Real Madrid attackers and the struggle of the Atletico Madrid attack to breach the defence consistently.
The victory places Real Madrid Women into the Supercopa Femenina final, a competition where they will now compete for silverware. For Atletico Madrid, the semi-final defeat ends their involvement in the tournament, leaving them to focus on the remainder of the season. The result reinforces Real Madrid’s status as a strong contender in the competition, having dispatched their local rivals with a clinical first-half spell that their opponents could not match over the full 90 minutes. The Lemeister model's projection of a 3-1 win proved accurate, highlighting the predictive value of the data in this narrow, early-decided contest.
