Where the market is wrong on Portland Thorns W v Denver Summit W
Portland Thorns W meet Denver Summit W in the NWSL Women group stage at Providence Park, undefined.
The baseline ratings are close, 1581 to 1466, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form leans Portland Thorns W, 60% against 45%. Attacking output favors Portland Thorns W on expected goals, 1.7 to 1.3 per match.
Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 60%, over 2.5 goals around 58%. Draw no bet leans Portland Thorns W at 55%; double chance reads Portland Thorns W or draw 68%, Denver Summit W or draw 61%.
Portland Thorns W arrive in good touch: 3W-1D-1L from their last five (10/15 pts, 3 straight wins), 10 scored and 11 conceded. Recent results: W 1-0 v Denver Summit W, W 2-1 v Orlando Pride W, W 4-3 @ Boston Legacy W, L 1-5 @ Utah Royals W.
Denver Summit W are patchy: 1W-2D-2L from their last five (5/15 pts), 4 scored and 6 conceded. Recent results: L 0-1 @ Portland Thorns W, D 1-1 @ San Diego Wave W, W 2-1 v Utah Royals W, L 0-2 v North Carolina Courage W.
The recent head-to-head is even, 1 apiece across the last 2 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: Portland Thorns W 1-0 Denver Summit W.
The market prices POR at 40% implied. Our number sits apart on the draw: a 3.9-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 52 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
