San Diego Wave W v Seattle Reign FC W

San Diego Wave W meet Seattle Reign FC W in the NWSL Women group stage at Snapdragon Stadium, San Diego. The model makes San Diego Wave W the most likely outcome at 37%, with the full read 37% SAN, 32% draw, 31% SEA.

The baseline ratings are close, 1558 to 1489, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form separates little, 55% against 48%. Attacking output favors San Diego Wave W on expected goals, 1.3 to 1.1 per match.

Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 39%, over 2.5 goals around 32%. Draw no bet leans San Diego Wave W at 54%; double chance reads San Diego Wave W or draw 69%, Seattle Reign FC W or draw 63%.

San Diego Wave W arrive steady: 2W-1D-2L from their last five (7/15 pts), 5 scored and 6 conceded. Recent results: L 0-2 v Seattle Reign FC W, D 2-2 @ Kansas City W, L 0-2 v Angel City W, W 2-0 v NJ/NY Gotham FC W.

Seattle Reign FC W are steady: 2W-0D-3L from their last five (6/15 pts), 8 scored and 8 conceded. Recent results: W 2-0 @ San Diego Wave W, L 2-3 @ NJ/NY Gotham FC W, W 2-0 v Portland Thorns W, L 1-3 @ North Carolina Courage W.

Seattle Reign FC W hold the recent head-to-head, 8 wins to 1 with 1 drawn across the last 10 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: San Diego Wave W 0-2 Seattle Reign FC W.

The market prices SAN at 57% implied. Our number sits apart on Seattle Reign FC W: a 11.7-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.

MeisterIQ rates the signal 51 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.