Where the market is wrong on Concepción v O'Higgins
Concepción meet O'Higgins in the Primera División regular season - 16 at Estadio Ester Roa, Rancagua. The model makes Concepción the most likely outcome at 35%, with the full read 35% CON, 31% draw, 34% O'H.
The baseline ratings are close, 1489 to 1468, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form separates little, 45% against 45%. Attacking output favors Concepción on expected goals, 1.3 to 1.2 per match.
Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 51%, over 2.5 goals around 45%. Draw no bet leans Concepción at 50%; double chance reads Concepción or draw 66%, O'Higgins or draw 65%.
Concepción arrive in good touch: 4W-0D-1L from their last five (12/15 pts, 4 straight wins), 8 scored and 3 conceded. Recent results: W 2-0 v O'Higgins, W 2-0 v D. Puerto Montt, W 2-0 v Deportes Temuco, W 2-1 @ Huachipato.
O'Higgins are steady: 2W-0D-3L from their last five (6/15 pts, 2 straight defeats), 4 scored and 6 conceded. Recent results: L 0-2 @ Concepción, L 0-1 @ Boca Juniors, W 1-0 v Nublense, L 1-2 @ Nublense.
The market prices CON at 48% implied. Our number sits apart on O'Higgins: a 10.1-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 50 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
