Where the market is wrong on MP v KäPa
MP meet KäPa in the Ykkösliiga group stage at Mikkelin Urheilupuisto, Mikkeli. The model makes MP the most likely outcome at 36%, with the full read 36% MP, 30% draw, 34% KÄP.
The baseline ratings are close, 1477 to 1454, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form separates little, 45% against 43%. Attacking output favors MP on expected goals, 1.3 to 1.3 per match.
Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 60%, over 2.5 goals around 57%. Draw no bet leans MP at 52%; double chance reads MP or draw 66%, KäPa or draw 64%.
MP arrive patchy: 1W-2D-2L from their last five (5/15 pts), 8 scored and 10 conceded. Recent results: D 3-3 v Kooteepee, L 1-3 @ JIPPO, D 1-1 @ SJK Akatemia, W 2-1 v Haka.
KäPa are patchy: 1W-1D-3L from their last five (4/15 pts, 2 straight defeats), 7 scored and 11 conceded. Recent results: L 1-3 @ Haka, L 0-2 v Klubi-04, D 2-2 v SJK Akatemia, L 1-3 @ PK-35.
KäPa hold the recent head-to-head, 6 wins to 1 with 1 drawn across the last 8 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: MP 0-1 KäPa.
The market prices MP at 44% implied. Our number sits apart on KäPa: a 5.1-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 51 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
