Tromsø II v Ulfstind

Tromsø II meet Ulfstind in the 3. Division - Girone 5 regular season - 13. The model makes Tromsø II the most likely outcome at 37%, with the full read 37% TRO, 26% draw, 37% ULF.

The baseline ratings are close, 1400 to 1420, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form separates little, 28% against 35%. Attacking output favors Ulfstind on expected goals, 1.9 to 1.8 per match.

Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 92%, over 2.5 goals around 96%. Draw no bet leans Tromsø II at 50%; double chance reads Tromsø II or draw 63%, Ulfstind or draw 63%.

Tromsø II arrive patchy: 1W-1D-3L from their last five (4/15 pts, 3 straight defeats), 13 scored and 15 conceded. Recent results: L 1-3 v Ulfstind, L 3-5 @ Lillestrøm II, L 2-3 v Skedsmo, D 3-3 @ Alta.

Ulfstind are steady: 2W-1D-2L from their last five (7/15 pts), 8 scored and 14 conceded. Recent results: W 3-1 @ Tromsø II, D 1-1 v Harstad, L 1-10 @ Lillestrøm II, W 3-0 v Fløya.

Tromsø II hold the recent head-to-head, 2 wins to 1 across the last 3 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: Tromsø II 1-3 Ulfstind.

The market prices TRO at 63% implied. Our number sits apart on Ulfstind: a 18.5-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.

MeisterIQ rates the signal 51 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.