Where the market is wrong on Fyllingsdalen v Stord
Fyllingsdalen meet Stord in the 3. Division - Girone 3 regular season - 21.
The baseline ratings are close, 1400 to 1420, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form leans Stord, 40% against 8%. Attacking output favors Stord on expected goals, 1.9 to 0.7 per match.
Fyllingsdalen arrive out of sorts: 0W-0D-5L from their last five (0/15 pts, 5 straight defeats), 2 scored and 19 conceded. Recent results: L 1-2 v Stord, L 0-7 @ Brann II, L 1-2 v Gneist, L 0-7 @ Sogndal II.
Stord are patchy: 1W-2D-2L from their last five (5/15 pts), 12 scored and 14 conceded. Recent results: W 2-1 @ Fyllingsdalen, L 3-4 v Djerv, D 3-3 @ Askøy, L 3-5 v Fana.
Stord hold the recent head-to-head, 3 wins to 1 with 1 drawn across the last 5 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: Fyllingsdalen 1-2 Stord.
The market prices FYL at 13% implied. Our number sits apart on the draw: a 10.0-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 56 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
