Where the market is wrong on Turku PS v Mariehamn
Turku PS meet Mariehamn in the Veikkausliiga regular season - 18 at Veritas Stadion, Turku. The model makes Turku PS the most likely outcome at 45%, with the full read 45% TUR, 30% draw, 25% MAR.
The baseline ratings are close, 1512 to 1400, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form leans Turku PS, 50% against 25%. Attacking output favors Turku PS on expected goals, 1.3 to 0.9 per match.
Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 40%, over 2.5 goals around 44%. Draw no bet leans Turku PS at 64%; double chance reads Turku PS or draw 75%, Mariehamn or draw 55%.
Turku PS arrive steady: 2W-0D-3L from their last five (6/15 pts, 2 straight defeats), 8 scored and 9 conceded. Recent results: L 0-1 @ HJK Helsinki, L 1-3 v Ilves, W 3-0 v AC Oulu, L 1-3 @ SJK.
Mariehamn are out of sorts: 0W-1D-4L from their last five (1/15 pts), 3 scored and 13 conceded. Recent results: D 1-1 v AC Oulu, L 0-2 v Lahti, L 2-4 @ Gnistan, L 0-4 @ VPS.
The market prices TUR at 61% implied. Our number sits apart on the draw: a 8.5-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 53 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
