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Taça de Portugal · Quarter-finals · Portugal

FC Porto v Benfica

1-0Full time· Estádio do Dragão, Porto· Referee: Fabio Jose Costa Verissimo, Portugal

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Match analysisPre-match brief

FC Porto v Benfica: the model read

FC Porto meet Benfica in the Taça de Portugal quarter-finals at Estádio do Dragão, Porto. The model makes Benfica the most likely outcome at 36%, with the full read 34% FC , 31% draw, 36% BEN.

The baseline ratings are close, 1650 to 1650, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form separates little, 70% against 70%. Attacking output favors Benfica on expected goals, 2.1 to 1.5 per match.

Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 55%, over 2.5 goals around 51%. Draw no bet leans Benfica at 51%; double chance reads FC Porto or draw 64%, Benfica or draw 66%.

FC Porto arrive in good touch: 3W-0D-2L from their last five (9/15 pts), 5 scored and 5 conceded. Recent results: W 2-1 v Aston Villa, L 0-1 @ GIL Vicente, W 1-0 v Santa Clara, L 1-3 @ AVS.

Benfica are in good touch: 3W-0D-2L from their last five (9/15 pts), 12 scored and 6 conceded. Recent results: W 5-1 v CF Os Belenenses, L 1-2 @ FC ST. Gallen, W 2-0 v Villarreal, L 1-2 v Flamengo.

Market prices for this fixture have not settled yet. The edge reads as soon as real odds arrive.

MeisterIQ rates the signal 51 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.

Written from the MeisterIQ model output

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See plans

FC Porto

WLWLW12-4-4

Scored 1.50 · Conceded 0.85 · Clean sheets 35% · BTTS 50%

  • WHAston Villa2-1
  • LAGIL Vicente0-1
  • WHSanta Clara1-0
  • LAAVS1-3
  • WHAlverca1-0

Benfica

WLWLW12-4-4

Scored 2.10 · Conceded 1.10 · Clean sheets 20% · BTTS 75%

  • WHCF Os Belenenses5-1
  • LAFC ST. Gallen1-2
  • WHVillarreal2-0
  • LHFlamengo1-2
  • WAEstoril3-1

Managers

M. Anselmi

Head coach

In charge since 2025 · 4 clubs managed

  • Cruz Azul2024–2025
  • Independiente del Valle2022–2023
  • Union La Calera2022–2022

Bruno Lage

Portugal · 49

In charge since 2024 · 6 clubs managed

  • Botafogo2023–2023
  • Wolverhampton Wanderers2021–2022
  • Benfica2019–2020
  • Benfica II2018–2019

Real data only: recent results, head-to-head and market odds. No model output is shown for teams without Lemeister priors.