Where the market is wrong on Hammarby FF v Gais
Hammarby FF meet Gais in the Allsvenskan regular season - 18 at 3Arena, Stockholm.
The baseline ratings are close, 1604 to 1535, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form separates little, 63% against 55%. Attacking output favors Hammarby FF on expected goals, 1.9 to 1.2 per match.
Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 45%, over 2.5 goals around 45%. Draw no bet leans Hammarby FF at 61%; double chance reads Hammarby FF or draw 73%, Gais or draw 58%.
Hammarby FF arrive in good touch: 4W-0D-1L from their last five (12/15 pts, 3 straight wins), 12 scored and 1 conceded. Recent results: W 3-0 @ Stockholm Internazionale, W 2-0 v Gais, W 4-0 @ Kalmar FF, L 0-1 v Raków Częstochowa.
Gais are patchy: 1W-1D-3L from their last five (4/15 pts, 2 straight defeats), 3 scored and 10 conceded. Recent results: L 0-2 @ Hammarby FF, L 0-1 v Malmo FF, W 2-0 @ Halmstad, L 0-6 @ FC Nordsjaelland.
The market prices HAM at 68% implied. Our number sits apart on Gais: a 14.5-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 53 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
