Where the market is wrong on IFK Goteborg v IF Elfsborg
IFK Goteborg meet IF Elfsborg in the Allsvenskan regular season - 18 at Gamla Ullevi, Gothenburg.
The baseline ratings are close, 1454 to 1558, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form leans IF Elfsborg, 60% against 43%. Attacking output favors IF Elfsborg on expected goals, 1.4 to 1.4 per match.
Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 55%, over 2.5 goals around 63%. Draw no bet leans IF Elfsborg at 64%; double chance reads IFK Goteborg or draw 54%, IF Elfsborg or draw 74%.
IFK Goteborg arrive patchy: 1W-2D-2L from their last five (5/15 pts), 5 scored and 8 conceded. Recent results: D 1-1 v IF Elfsborg, L 0-3 @ Degerfors IF, D 1-1 @ Gent, W 3-2 v Kalmar FF.
IF Elfsborg are surging: 4W-1D-0L from their last five (13/15 pts, 5 unbeaten), 11 scored and 2 conceded. Recent results: D 1-1 @ IFK Goteborg, W 4-0 @ Västra Frölunda, W 3-0 v Vasteras SK FK, W 1-0 @ Mjallby AIF.
IF Elfsborg hold the recent head-to-head, 7 wins to 1 with 2 drawn across the last 10 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: IFK Goteborg 1-1 IF Elfsborg.
The market prices IFK at 36% implied. Our number sits apart on IF Elfsborg: a 10.1-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 79 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
