Where the market is wrong on Union Omaha v Charlotte Independence
Union Omaha meet Charlotte Independence in the USL League One group stage at Werner Park, undefined.
The baseline ratings are close, 1604 to 1673, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form leans Charlotte Independence, 73% against 63%. Attacking output favors Charlotte Independence on expected goals, 2.3 to 1.9 per match.
Union Omaha arrive steady: 2W-2D-1L from their last five (8/15 pts), 9 scored and 5 conceded. Recent results: W 2-0 v Charlotte Independence, D 1-1 v NY Cosmos, L 0-2 @ Naples, D 1-1 v Sarasota Paradise.
Charlotte Independence are in good touch: 3W-1D-1L from their last five (10/15 pts), 12 scored and 6 conceded. Recent results: L 0-2 @ Union Omaha, W 3-2 v Portland Hearts of Pine, W 5-0 v Alta, D 1-1 @ Forward Madison.
Union Omaha hold the recent head-to-head, 5 wins to 2 with 3 drawn across the last 10 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: Union Omaha 2-0 Charlotte Independence.
The market prices UNI at 51% implied. Our number sits apart on Charlotte Independence: a 15.0-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 82 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
