Alta v Naples: the model read
Alta meet Naples in the USL League One group stage at Lancaster Municipal Stadium, undefined.
Alta rate clearly stronger on the baseline, 1546 to 1400. Recent form leans Alta, 55% against 25%. Attacking output favors Alta on expected goals, 1.4 to 1.1 per match.
Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 47%, over 2.5 goals around 58%. Draw no bet leans Alta at 66%; double chance reads Alta or draw 76%, Naples or draw 53%.
Alta arrive patchy: 1W-0D-4L from their last five (3/15 pts, 2 straight defeats), 7 scored and 8 conceded. Recent results: L 1-2 v Naples, L 0-1 @ NY Cosmos, W 3-0 v Fort Wayne, L 1-2 @ Naples.
Naples are in good touch: 3W-0D-2L from their last five (9/15 pts, 2 straight wins), 9 scored and 8 conceded. Recent results: W 2-0 v Union Omaha, W 2-1 @ Alta, L 2-3 @ Westchester SC, W 2-1 v Alta.
The market prices ALT at 46% implied. Our number sits apart on the draw: a 2.4-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 58 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output