Naples v Portland Hearts of Pine: the model read
Naples meet Portland Hearts of Pine in the USL League One group stage at Paradise Coast Sports Complex, undefined. The model makes Portland Hearts of Pine the most likely outcome at 42%, with the full read 29% NAP, 29% draw, 42% POR.
The baseline ratings are close, 1400 to 1443, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form leans Portland Hearts of Pine, 43% against 25%. Attacking output favors Portland Hearts of Pine on expected goals, 1.6 to 0.9 per match.
Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 63%, over 2.5 goals around 66%. Draw no bet leans Portland Hearts of Pine at 59%; double chance reads Naples or draw 58%, Portland Hearts of Pine or draw 71%.
Naples arrive out of sorts: 0W-0D-5L from their last five (0/15 pts, 5 straight defeats), 3 scored and 10 conceded. Recent results: L 1-3 @ Forward Madison, L 0-2 @ Tampa Bay Rowdies, L 0-1 @ NY Cosmos, L 2-3 v Portland Hearts of Pine.
Portland Hearts of Pine are out of sorts: 0W-2D-3L from their last five (2/15 pts), 6 scored and 9 conceded. Recent results: D 2-2 @ Sarasota Paradise, L 1-2 v Sarasota Paradise, L 1-2 v Union Omaha, L 1-2 @ Boise.
Portland Hearts of Pine hold the recent head-to-head, 3 wins to 0 with 2 drawn across the last 5 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: Naples 2-3 Portland Hearts of Pine.
Market prices for this fixture have not settled yet. The edge reads as soon as real odds arrive.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 53 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output