Phoenix Rising v Monterey Bay: the model read
Phoenix Rising meet Monterey Bay in the USL Championship group stage at Wild Horse Pass Stadium, undefined. The model makes Phoenix Rising the most likely outcome at 37%, with the full read 37% PHO, 30% draw, 32% MON.
The baseline ratings are close, 1477 to 1400, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form leans Phoenix Rising, 45% against 33%. Attacking output favors Phoenix Rising on expected goals, 1.2 to 1.2 per match.
Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 56%, over 2.5 goals around 53%. Draw no bet leans Phoenix Rising at 54%; double chance reads Phoenix Rising or draw 68%, Monterey Bay or draw 63%.
Phoenix Rising arrive patchy: 1W-1D-3L from their last five (4/15 pts), 8 scored and 11 conceded. Recent results: D 0-0 v Hartford Athletic, W 3-2 v Monterey Bay, L 1-2 @ Alta, L 1-3 @ Colorado Springs.
Monterey Bay are patchy: 1W-1D-3L from their last five (4/15 pts, 3 straight defeats), 6 scored and 8 conceded. Recent results: L 1-2 v Orange County SC, L 2-3 @ Phoenix Rising, L 2-3 v Las Vegas Lights, D 0-0 @ San Antonio.
Phoenix Rising hold the recent head-to-head, 4 wins to 3 with 2 drawn across the last 9 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: Phoenix Rising 3-2 Monterey Bay.
Market prices for this fixture have not settled yet. The edge reads as soon as real odds arrive.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 51 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
