Where the market is wrong on Wexford v Athlone Town
Wexford meet Athlone Town in the First Division regular season - 28 at Ferrycarrig Park, Wexford.
The baseline ratings are close, 1431 to 1466, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form separates little, 38% against 45%. Attacking output favors Athlone Town on expected goals, 1.1 to 1.0 per match.
Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 36%, over 2.5 goals around 30%. Draw no bet leans Athlone Town at 56%; double chance reads Wexford or draw 62%, Athlone Town or draw 70%.
Wexford arrive steady: 2W-0D-3L from their last five (6/15 pts, 2 straight defeats), 5 scored and 9 conceded. Recent results: L 0-2 v Athlone Town, L 1-4 @ UCD, W 2-1 v Bray Wanderers, L 0-1 @ Cobh Ramblers.
Athlone Town are steady: 2W-1D-2L from their last five (7/15 pts), 7 scored and 6 conceded. Recent results: W 2-0 @ Wexford, L 1-2 @ Waterford, W 2-1 v Longford Town, L 2-3 @ Cork City.
Athlone Town hold the recent head-to-head, 3 wins to 2 with 5 drawn across the last 10 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: Wexford 0-2 Athlone Town.
The market prices WEX at 42% implied. Our number sits apart on the draw: a 6.2-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 67 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
