Finn Harps v Kerry: the model read
Finn Harps meet Kerry in the First Division regular season - 15 at Finn Park, Ballybofey. The model makes Kerry the most likely outcome at 43%, with the full read 26% FIN, 32% draw, 43% KER.
The baseline ratings are close, 1400 to 1500, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form leans Kerry, 50% against 30%. Attacking output favors Kerry on expected goals, 1.1 to 0.7 per match.
Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 35%, over 2.5 goals around 35%. Draw no bet leans Kerry at 62%; double chance reads Finn Harps or draw 57%, Kerry or draw 74%.
Finn Harps arrive patchy: 1W-1D-3L from their last five (4/15 pts, 3 straight defeats), 3 scored and 5 conceded. Recent results: L 1-2 @ Kerry, L 0-1 v Bray Wanderers, L 0-1 v Treaty United, W 1-0 v Wexford.
Kerry are steady: 2W-2D-1L from their last five (8/15 pts), 9 scored and 8 conceded. Recent results: W 2-1 v Finn Harps, D 2-2 v Shelbourne, D 2-2 @ Wexford, L 1-2 @ Treaty United.
The recent head-to-head is even, 4 apiece with 2 drawn across the last 10 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: Kerry 2-1 Finn Harps.
Market prices for this fixture have not settled yet. The edge reads as soon as real odds arrive.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 53 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
